United States Politics Thread 47

[keenir]

History lesson: what do you think the figure was in 1995?

Answer: half that.

Doesn't fit your narrative, does it? When do we get your sheepish apology?

The point still stands. When the vast majority of Americans either support illiberal policies or couldn't care either way, there is no reason to expect liberals to win even fair and honest elections. How do you imagine a quarter of the population ousting this regime and enacting anything resembling progressive policies with so little popular support? You have an incredible level of faith in people who have consistently done nothing to deserve it.

oh no, we fully expect the majority of the "ousting" population, to be MAGA in origin, having been severely alienated and ticked off by Trump et al.

[malloc]

oh no, we fully expect the majority of the "ousting" population, to be MAGA in origin, having been severely alienated and ticked off by Trump et al.

Why do you expect them to become angry with Trump this time when they remained fanatically loyal to him throughout one catastrophe after another? Most likely they will simply blame whatever minority Trump scapegoats and invent elaborate conspiracy theories to explain why MAGA policies failed.

[keenir]

oh no, we fully expect the majority of the "ousting" population, to be MAGA in origin, having been severely alienated and ticked off by Trump et al.

Why do you expect them to become angry with Trump this time

why? well, because they are.

when they remained fanatically loyal to him throughout one catastrophe after another?

well they aren't doing that now, nor for the catastrophes earlier in Trump's current presidency.

thats the thing about fanatics: they're the most dangerous people to their own people.

Most likely they will simply blame whatever minority Trump scapegoats and invent elaborate conspiracy theories to explain why MAGA policies failed.

...which they are already not doing.

[malloc]

Then why haven't his approval ratings crashed? The last I checked, they were still hovering between 45% and 50% depending on what poll. You must take care to distinguish some cherry-picked examples of disillusioned followers from genuine mass movement. If people were really turning against Trump in appreciable numbers, we would see his approval ratings dropping noticeably. Instead his approval ratings have only improved or held steady at worst.

[keenir]

Then why haven't his approval ratings crashed? The last I checked, they were still hovering between 45% and 50% depending on what poll. You must take care to distinguish some cherry-picked examples of disillusioned followers from genuine mass movement.

you mean like a wave of arson attacks and enough verbal questionings to make the Republicans stop holding Town Halls? (when normally they LOVE Town Halls and can't get enough of them)

If people were really turning against Trump in appreciable numbers, we would see his approval ratings dropping noticeably. Instead his approval ratings have only improved or held steady at worst.

and you don't think his ratings are cherry-picked or thanks to careful wording because...?

because it doesn't fit your gloom and doom and durm und strangle view, i'd wager.
(massive apologies for my butchering of the German)

besides, YOU YOURSELF keep arguing that all the media is in Trump's pocket and doing whatever he wants them to do...so why can we suddenly trust The Media's polls about Trump's approval/popularity ?

[bradrn]

because it doesn't fit your gloom and doom and durm und strangle view, i'd wager.

‘Sturm und Drang’, I believe.

[zompist]

You have an incredible level of faith in people who have consistently done nothing to deserve it.

No, I believe in fighting for human beings because it's the right thing to do. Worrying whether they "deserve it" is a conservative attitude.

[bradrn]

You have an incredible level of faith in people who have consistently done nothing to deserve it.

No, I believe in fighting for human beings because it's the right thing to do. Worrying whether they "deserve it" is a conservative attitude.

Well said.

[zompist]

But will any of this pain (even more so if social security gets deleted) actually make any red states turn blue? The conservative instinct when times are tough is to just blame your enemies and outsiders even more! I guess we'll find out in two/four years.

Education, no: it's too indirect. If Louisiana schools suddenly have only 80% of the money they had... well, the state already ranks #47 in education, most voters probably don't care.

If the Republicans torch Social Security, then yes, states turn blue in a hurry. Or at least anti-red. The voters won't turn on Trump because of another Trump scandal, or because foreigners are dying because of him. They do care about bread and butter issues, such as the cost of bread and butter.

A couple of anecdotes from Mastodon. Anecdata, but interesting.

I was so excited to find out that after being the blue oasis, in a very red neighborhood, for at least the last eight years our neighbors are coming out of their trance.
Our closest, in proximity, neighbors actually apologized to us and said they are sorry for voting the way they did in the last three elections. It seems they have also convinced the ranchers across from us, too.

Today, someone IRL, to my face, started talking about all the fraud DOGE found. I am glad I was informed and was able to set them straight.

I'll not get into all of it, but one thing is the people who get SSA benefits on another person's records. I pointed out that his wife gets benefits under his Social Security number. He better hope his check keeps coming. He said he was going to call SSA.

I pointed out he better hurry because soon he may have to drive 40 miles to the nearest SSA because they are ending certain phone support.

This person also was so happy to get the Social Security bump that Biden signed in for federal workers. I pointed out that Biden signed the law. They got a twitch.

He started talking about an upcoming telehealth appointment with his doctor who is over 60 miles away. I informed him about the ending of telehealth on April 1st.

He left mumbling to himself, literally mumbling.

The Republicans are not magic.

[malloc]

If the Republicans torch Social Security, then yes, states turn blue in a hurry. Or at least anti-red. The voters won't turn on Trump because of another Trump scandal, or because foreigners are dying because of him. They do care about bread and butter issues, such as the cost of bread and butter.

That assumes that Trump doesn't simply scapegoat some minority or gaslight people into believing bread and butter have always cost a proverbial bag of gold. Not even the whole COVID pandemic, with its massive death count and economic crash, managed to tarnish their impression of Trump so why would this make any difference?

[Travis B.]

If the Republicans torch Social Security, then yes, states turn blue in a hurry. Or at least anti-red. The voters won't turn on Trump because of another Trump scandal, or because foreigners are dying because of him. They do care about bread and butter issues, such as the cost of bread and butter.

That assumes that Trump doesn't simply scapegoat some minority or gaslight people into believing bread and butter have always cost a proverbial bag of gold. Not even the whole COVID pandemic, with its massive death count and economic crash, managed to tarnish their impression of Trump so why would this make any difference?

At this point, if there is going to be a fall guy other than Trump, it is going to be Elon Musk. Even MAGA people are now complaining about now an unelected ultra-rich clown is running the show (ignoring the role of Trump himself).

[keenir]

That assumes that Trump doesn't simply scapegoat some minority

...which would require El Presidento* Trump be able to remember his thoughts for more than ten seconds at a time. Look at how the Irish went from "I love them, they're my favorite people" to "They're destroying America" (the latter when asked if Ireland was part of the EU's actions that Trump says are hostile to the US)

* = one thing I picked up when I was trying to help my dad learn Spanish (admittedly a mix of Penninsular and Latin American), was that -o is masculine, which methinks Trump would insist upon.

[rotting bones]

I bet that that is from MAGAts who are enamored with their Great Leader and who think he is taking the US in the right direction rather than any broad support for what Trump is doing.

I'm not sure there's a difference. Conservative masses always think in terms of "our values are winning" instead of the material effects of government policies. The movement is idpol all the way down. I guess we'll find out how dumb humans really are.

As for the unpopularity of the Dems, that I think is specifically because the Dems aren't doing enough to fight Trump rather than out of love for Trump.

Democratic voters have been demotivated for a long time. At least since the elections.

[rotting bones]

As for the education thing, I think Christian nationalists are hoping for secular public education to be replaced by church-sponsored religious indoctrination for the masses, preaching obedience to social conventions, parents and bosses. I'm sure the government will be able to employ a new crop of "leftists" to explain why regress is not really regress.

[malloc]

I'm sure the government will be able to employ a new crop of "leftists" to explain why regress is not really regress.

Quite unlikely. I realize you greatly dislike the direction taken by the contemporary left, but they certainly aren't allies of reaction nor does the current reactionary movement have any fondness for them. Based on their current actions and rhetoric, the MAGAs have no interest in allying with leftists of any stripe.

[zompist]

As for the education thing, I think Christian nationalists are hoping for secular public education to be replaced by church-sponsored religious indoctrination for the masses, preaching obedience to social conventions, parents and bosses.

Education is handled at the state level here, and plenty of states are already run by Republicans. Yet they haven't eliminated public schools, far from it.

Percentage of kindergarten through grade 12 students enrolled in private schools, by state, Fall 2021:


Private schools are nowhere more than a small minority, but it's noteworthy that the states where private schools are more common are in the Dem-leaning northeast.

[rotting bones]

Quite unlikely. I realize you greatly dislike the direction taken by the contemporary left, but they certainly aren't allies of reaction nor does the current reactionary movement have any fondness for them. Based on their current actions and rhetoric, the MAGAs have no interest in allying with leftists of any stripe.

I haven't watched this video: https://youtu.be/PzcJa_laFGk?si=tNqObdiHK5Mzj1Ld

Based on the thumbnail, I have watched hours of this person and people like her in the past.

[rotting bones]

Education is handled at the state level here, and plenty of states are already run by Republicans. Yet they haven't eliminated public schools, far from it.

Republicans have openly allied with Christian nationalists, but they have not been indistinguishable from them so far. Christian nationalists are hoping to change that. They plan to use Trump's popularity to set the direction for the Republican party from the federal level.

[malloc]

I haven't watched this video: https://youtu.be/PzcJa_laFGk?si=tNqObdiHK5Mzj1Ld

Based on the thumbnail, I have watched hours of this person and people like her in the past.

Fine. I thought about mentioning the "patriotic socialists" and "MAGA communists" as an exception in my post, but decided otherwise given their obvious irrelevance.

[rotting bones]

Fine. I thought about mentioning the "patriotic socialists" and "MAGA communists" as an exception in my post, but decided otherwise given their obvious irrelevance.

They are irrelevant because they don't have any money. Nevertheless, they exist in large numbers. A regime that prizes loyalty above all else will eventually be incentivized to hire them. If the regime lasts long enough for that to happen, their money problems will disappear.