War in the Middle East, again

[rotting bones]

I remember hearing about this for a while. I've read most of the anti-government protesters want the government to prioritize returning the hostages. They don't actually care about Palestinians. Is this really surprising for an age of ultranationalism when national pride is promoted as a virtue from every quarter?

Personally, I think the most neutral description of Zionism is that it's Israeli nationalism. The other Jewish nationalism, Bundism, only has a handful of supporters left, but they do exist. People like Dr. Abraham Weizfeld find it difficult to get their books published. Apparently, it's racist to oppose nationalism these days. I've even heard that it's racist to oppose capitalism. According to Israel's propaganda machine, there's nothing racist about equating "capitalist" with "Jew"!

Not that the opponents of Israel are necessarily nice people. One just shot up the Israeli embassy in DC IIRC. There are many Jews, religious and secular, inside and outside Israel, who do condemn Israeli atrocities, and who are likely to be caught in the crossfire of growing antisemitism. Like Islamists want Muslims to be discriminated against in non-Muslim countries, I suspect Israel likes this development because they are hoping for more Jewish immigrants to complete their nation-building project.

There are fundamentalist Christians in America who support all this because they believe that once all the Jews have settled in Israel, Jesus will return to kill all the Jews and establish his kingdom on earth. I wonder what they will do when that doesn't happen. They will never see the light, but what's their next conspiracy theory? Maybe they will say Jesus will only return when all Israel's enemies have been subdued and it has become a Thousand Year Reich.

Thanks to everyone who defended religion against the atheist movement. You have made today's utopia possible!

[Torco]

I do surveys for a living, and 1k people, if decently sampled, is more or less industry standard. i wouldn't trust it to 1%, but I'd trust it to 10. assuming it's methodologically sound, if it says 50 i'd bet that the real number is between 40 and 60. of course details matter, the question is reported to have been written in the context of some biblical tale, amalek and jericho and stuff, and so more people possibly answered in support that if they had been asked without the religion stuff... but then again, that's probably the point.

I understand israel is not homogeneous, but data like this lets us go beyond which are the positions that summarize this diversity and into how many people ascribe to which, roughly, and what's the overall shape of the thing. like sure, there are communists in the us, but they're irrelevant. this public opinion is remarkably volatile, as most people are not super strongly aligned with anything, they just kinda go with the flow... we all do about most things, especially the things we don't care about much, and most people are not as political as we odd people who enjoy discussing about wars and geopolitics on the internet at 1am.

what do you think normal countries score if you measure the same variable, though? if you ask in, say, belgium, to the flemish "do you support the expulsion of all waloons"... would you get a 50%? or would you get more like a 3 or 7. If you ask in america "should we expell al the mexicans" you may get a 15, but you're not getting 40. (maybe in some towns you would). chileans are going through an especially right-wing cultural moment right now, by all accounts, the mapuche region has been under a kind of martial law for years, but you don't get 50% to "should we remove the mapuche" if you poll it. okay, no one polls it, admittedly, but i'm pretty, pretty, preeeeeetty sure.

I wouldn't call the us a fascist country just for electing trump but if 80% of americans were in favour of deporting all ethnic mexicans i think i very well might, wouldn't you?

[bradrn]

I do surveys for a living

Huh, didn’t know.

and 1k people, if decently sampled, is more or less industry standard. i wouldn't trust it to 1%, but I'd trust it to 10. assuming it's methodologically sound, if it says 50 i'd bet that the real number is between 40 and 60.

Well… the point I was making was precisely that qualifier, ‘if decently sampled’. I’d very much like to know how they did their sampling — especially since the author has a focus on Religious Zionists, and (as you mention) the questions were religiously oriented.

I understand israel is not homogeneous, but data like this lets us go beyond which are the positions that summarize this diversity and into how many people ascribe to which, roughly, and what's the overall shape of the thing. like sure, there are communists in the us, but they're irrelevant. this public opinion is remarkably volatile, as most people are not super strongly aligned with anything, they just kinda go with the flow... we all do about most things, especially the things we don't care about much, and most people are not as political as we odd people who enjoy discussing about wars and geopolitics on the internet at 1am.

(It’s 4pm here in Sydney…)

I think that’s fair, but it’s also not the whole story. Many Israelis are quite strongly politically aligned — especially on the anti-government side, judging from the size of the protests. There is a significant difference between ‘50% of people have horrible opinions and the rest are apathetic’, vs ‘50% have horrible opinions and the rest are fighting against them’. (If it even is 50%, which as mentioned I find doubtful.)

I guess the point I’m making is: it’s unfair to make generalisations about Israelis from the numbers alone when they are so politically engaged. Rather than giving up on Israel as a ‘supremacist country bent on the destruction of Palestinians’, you should recognise that a significant proportion of Israelis agree with you and are actively advocating for that cause.

[Raphael]

you should recognise that a significant proportion of Israelis agree with you and are actively advocating for that cause.

Perhaps a significant proportion, but, from what I've seen of Israeli politics recently, almost certainly nowhere near a majority. And when people start talking about how polls are unreliable because only a few people get polled - which is how polls work - that's often the point at which other people can start to back away slowly.

Personally, I think the most neutral description of Zionism is that it's Israeli nationalism.

Nathan Goldwag, to whom I linked a few posts ago, made a similar argument here: https://www.liberalcurrents.com/the-ban ... f-zionism/

[rotting bones]

Nathan Goldwag, to whom I linked a few posts ago, made a similar argument here: https://www.liberalcurrents.com/the-ban ... f-zionism/

I don't know. Does Israel's recent strategy of cracking down on leftism as "antisemitism" and giving a pass to actual rightwing antisemitism fit into the framework of 19th century nationalism? Maybe I'm naive, but didn't 19th century nationalists theoretically care more about their in-groups than their pet political projects?

More importantly, can we replace the term "political right" with something sillier? I suggest PONG, Politics/Politician Of National Greatness.

[Raphael]

I don't know. Does Israel's recent strategy of cracking down on leftism as "antisemitism" and giving a pass to actual rightwing antisemitism fit into the framework of 19th century nationalism? Maybe I'm naive, but didn't 19th century nationalists theoretically care more about their in-groups than their pet political projects?

I don't think you can distinguish between classical nationalism(s) and many, many pet issues of many nationalists, historical and modern.

[rotting bones]

I don't think you can distinguish between classical nationalism(s) and many, many pet issues of many nationalists, historical and modern.

Would they really have been ok with encouraging hatred for their own ethnic group in other countries just to increase immigration into their national borders? Something about that strategy smacks of 20th century cynicism. But maybe I've fallen for the romantic delusion that the past was more idealistic.

[Raphael]

Would they really have been ok with encouraging hatred for their own ethnic group in other countries just to increase immigration into their national borders?

I don't think that even today's Israeli leadership is doing that. They're not so much encouraging right-wing antisemitism, as simply ignoring it, because they see right-wingers as fellow haters of Muslims and leftists.

[rotting bones]

I don't think that even today's Israeli leadership is doing that. They're not so much encouraging right-wing antisemitism, as simply ignoring it, because they see right-wingers as fellow haters of Muslims and leftists.

Isn't Israel donating to antisemitic Christian/white nationalist politicians? I feel like if 19th century nationalists had been glad these groups exist, they would have at most used them for propaganda purposes in their nationalist rhetoric, not actually funded them. That is, if they had been smart type. If they had been the dumb type, they might have tried to attack New York. Since it has a Jewish population, they might have declared it to be a part of Greater Israel.

[Raphael]

Isn't Israel donating to antisemitic Christian/white nationalist politicians?

I have my doubts that Israel is donating to people elsewhere; it seems to be a net receiver of donations. Yes, Israel's leaders, by now, effectively encourage antisemitic Christian/white nationalist politicians, but they seem claim that antisemitism is simply fine as long as an individual antisemite is willing to accept Jews who live a safe distance away. I still think the point is simply to bash Muslims and leftists.

If they had been the dumb type, they might have tried to attack New York. Since it has a Jewish population, they might have declared it to be a part of Greater Israel.

There's a lot of Italians in New York, too, but I don't think I've ever heard of any Italian nationalists, no matter how dumb, claiming it on those grounds. Nationalist claims about which places are rightfully whose are all too often based on fantasy rather than reality.

[zompist]

what do you think normal countries score if you measure the same variable, though? if you ask in, say, belgium, to the flemish "do you support the expulsion of all waloons"... would you get a 50%? or would you get more like a 3 or 7. If you ask in america "should we expell al the mexicans" you may get a 15, but you're not getting 40.

FWIW, deciding that Israel, alone in the world, is not a "normal country" and is uniquely evil does sound pretty antisemitic.

Do you really think we have to look far for this sort of thing?
-- Rwanda & Burundi, genocide of the Tutsi
-- Burma, ongoing genocide of the Rohingya and other minorities
-- China, ongoing genocide of the Uyghurs
-- Hindutva's oppression of Muslims in India (Hindutva activists are on record as saying that Muslims should have no civil rights... and they're in power)
-- whatever the hell is happening in South Sudan; the Masalit ethnicity is especially targeted
-- Russian indiscriminate killing of adult civilians and kidnapping of children in areas it occupied in Ukraine
-- Genocide of Yezadis and Turkmens by ISIS
-- 40% of Pygmy population in Eastern Congo killed

And honestly I'm stopping there only because it's pretty disgusting reading the details of such things. You should be able to figure this stuff out yourself.

[rotting bones]

I have my doubts that Israel is donating to people elsewhere; it seems to be a net receiver of donations. Yes, Israel's leaders, by now, effectively encourage antisemitic Christian/white nationalist politicians, but they seem claim that antisemitism is simply fine as long as an individual antisemite is willing to accept Jews who live a safe distance away. I still think the point is simply to bash Muslims and leftists.

American politicians use Israel as a money laundering operation. They donate tax dollars to Israel expecting a kickback for their personal use. Israel has very little power in this situation. They tend to donate to rightwing politicians because they are less critical of Israel. Israeli politicians might justify this status quo as the one that ensures their survival, but is it really lost on them that donating to antisemites abroad would encourage Jewish immigration to Israel? One time, a bunch of Mizo tribesmen converted to Judaism and moved to Israel. Israeli politicians were unhappy and let them stay in dangerous border regions. They commented that they are looking for first world immigrants, not third world trash. (Mizos have the second highest literacy rate in India after the Communist Malayalis.)

There's a lot of Italians in New York, too, but I don't think I've ever heard of any Italian nationalists, no matter how dumb, claiming it on those grounds. Nationalist claims about which places are rightfully whose are all too often based on fantasy rather than reality.

I don't know if the Italians wrapped in their national consciousness were aware of how many Italians there were in New York. New York's Jewish community is culturally prominent, and that's what would potentially play into the nationalist fantasy.

[bradrn]

you should recognise that a significant proportion of Israelis agree with you and are actively advocating for that cause.

Perhaps a significant proportion, but, from what I've seen of Israeli politics recently, almost certainly nowhere near a majority.

Well, I guess we’ll see in the next election… if Netanyahu gets re-elected without a hostage–ceasefire deal, that’s the point when I’ll start to really panic. (Remember that Israel has proportional seat allocations.)

And when people start talking about how polls are unreliable because only a few people get polled - which is how polls work - that's often the point at which other people can start to back away slowly.

No, I’m talking about sampling problems. I accepted Torco’s estimate of 10% error bounds if the sampling is good.

what do you think normal countries score if you measure the same variable, though? if you ask in, say, belgium, to the flemish "do you support the expulsion of all waloons"... would you get a 50%? or would you get more like a 3 or 7. If you ask in america "should we expell al the mexicans" you may get a 15, but you're not getting 40.

FWIW, deciding that Israel, alone in the world, is not a "normal country" and is uniquely evil does sound pretty antisemitic.

Yes, this is basically the point I was trying to make.

(Not that I accept that Israel is even in the same league as those examples of genocide you list… but that’s a different argument. And even if it were so — if Rwanda and Bosnia could recover from it, then so could Israel.)

[keenir]

It’s also worth mentioning some broader context. At the moment, there is a struggle going on within Israel to define its identity and future. On one hand you have the Religious Zionists and the Kahanists (and Netanyahu, sort of);

I don't think I've heard of the Kahanists, sorry. Are there other names by which they're known?

[Raphael]

I don't think I've heard of the Kahanists, sorry. Are there other names by which they're known?

Originally, they had the Kach party, before that was banned generations ago. They're a lot stronger now than they were back then. They're named after their historical founder, this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meir_Kahane

[Travis B.]

Just because one can very legitimately argue that Israel has been committing genocide does not make all Israelis génocidaires, just like how not all Hutus during the Rwandan genocide were actually génocidaires.

[Torco]

I do surveys for a living

Huh, didn’t know.

well, i did study sociology in uni, but then i had a bunch of unrelated jobs: hr, IT consultancy. a few years back i sorta got into the doing quantitative social research business. worked for a year in a small polling company and now i'm in a bigger, fairly prestigious one. it's been really fun tbh.

I think you're not wrong, we'd need to check the methodology, but alas, i haven't found the original report to know for sure. Also it is indeed unfair to say all israelis are hitlerite or something like that (permit me informality, by hitlerite here i mean "broadly supportive not only of a genocide but of a genocidal project, that is, the interpretation of zionism whereby the point is the extermination of a concrete race, at least within a territory", but that's too long). I'm not saying all israelis are hitlerite, but if half the population is hitlerite enough to admit to it openly, and assuming this distributes normally (i.e. that for every guy who tells you openly "yeah, we need to exterminate them" there's, i don't know, 0.3 or sth who thinks that but doesn't say it out loud, or who doesn't think that but he's kind of on the fence) then it is a veeeery hitlerite country.

i think these sorts of generalizations like countries being more or less hitlerite (even though of course there are hitlerites and non-hitlerites in every country) are often useful. for example, we can say things like "america is a very capitalist country", cause sure, there are socialists in the states, but most people are pro capitalism, the culture is very pro capitalism... broadly speaking, america is pro capitalist. broadly speaking, argentina loves football. broadly speaking, iran is muslim. these represent real facts

Perhaps a significant proportion, but, from what I've seen of Israeli politics recently, almost certainly nowhere near a majority. And when people start talking about how polls are unreliable because only a few people get polled - which is how polls work - that's often the point at which other people can start to back away slowly.

now, now, i can also tell you, as an industry insider, pollsters do lie. it's reasonable to look at results that really challenge one's worldview with some due skepticism. regarding this poll, i think the due skepticism here is low, but not zero. i'm ultimately convinced to prima facie believe the results cause i don't have any reason to distrust it, especially, but also cause they fit other evidence i see in the world, like the fact that there's a lot of outright genocidal talk coming from israel etcetera, but that doesn't mean the survey can't be concievably a scam.

I don't think that even today's Israeli leadership is doing that. They're not so much encouraging right-wing antisemitism, as simply ignoring it, because they see right-wingers as fellow haters of Muslims and leftists.

Isn't Israel donating to antisemitic Christian/white nationalist politicians? I feel like if 19th century nationalists had been glad these groups exist, they would have at most used them for propaganda purposes in their nationalist rhetoric, not actually funded them. That is, if they had been smart type. If they had been the dumb type, they might have tried to attack New York. Since it has a Jewish population, they might have declared it to be a part of Greater Israel.

yeah, but geopolitics is like that. the yanks, who are not pro islam, fund islamic fundamentalists. they're not pro falun gong, but they fund the falun gong. it doesn't mean they want to promote antisemitism, just that a bit of it is acceptable cost in the pursuit of some goal. why are they funding christian nationalists? well, we all have some notion right ?

FWIW, deciding that Israel, alone in the world, is not a "normal country" and is uniquely evil does sound pretty antisemitic.

not really? you could believe israel is uniquely evil, you could even believe israel is the only state currently commiting genocide, and you could believe this not on the basis of hating jewish people, but on some other grounds. you would be wrong, though, which is why i did not say any of that. there are normal countries, and there are hitlerite countries. I'd say the same if a poll from rwanda that said half of hutus believe they agree with kill all tutsi. I'd probably say it more often if so many otherwise reasonable people were defending the hutus. i swear, dictionaries should start printing "not being supportive of the state of israel" as one of the meaning of antisemitism by now.

(Not that I accept that Israel is even in the same league as those examples of genocide you list… but that’s a different argument. And even if it were so — if Rwanda and Bosnia could recover from it, then so could Israel.)

yes, but first they had to stop it. after they stop it, i'll wish the non-genocidal israelis the best of luck making their country prosperous and free and all the rest of it.

but keeping in mind israel is a hitlerite country currently carrying out genocide is important: measures like what the spanish are doing, banning arms trade with israel, are important. they put pressure on the genocidaires to stop. if the rwandan state was indeed taken over by hutu genocidaires, treating rwanda like a hitlerite country (sanctions, tariffs, diplomatic sanctions, academic divestment, removing points in bids for contracts i don't know, stuff like that, no one's talking about an international military coalition invading and putting a stop to things or sth) would be warranted and praiseworthy, obligatory even. here the palestinian community are strongly urging the government to sanction israel, ban trade with it or something. if they succeed, that is one more reason for the genocidaires to stop. sanctions, embargos, the bds movement. these are all good things. south africa stopped being hitlerite at least in part because of those things, and they depend on the crimes of genocidaires being rightly shed light on and denounced.

[malloc]

Israel strikes Iran. Looks like we are getting WWIII on top of everything else now.

[keenir]

Israel strikes Iran. Looks like we are getting WWIII on top of everything else now.

well, now we can finally answer one of Einstein's final riddles:
"I do not know with what weapons WW3 will be fought, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones."

[bradrn]

Israel strikes Iran. Looks like we are getting WWIII on top of everything else now.

It looks like the US is trying to avoid escalation, at least. But I’m worried for my family in Israel.