Currently, while PVV is in the lead, they're only a few points above the Labor–Green alliance and VVD, (all three parties are floating at about 20% right now) so it could be very close... though three months is quite a while. As a reminder, the Dutch House of Representatives is elected in a purely proportional representation system, with 15 parties in the current House (but only four with more than 10 seats).
Elections in various countries
- lëtzeshark
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Re: Elections in various countries
So, after 11 months of the PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB* government (which, notably, took about seven months to form), early elections have been called in the Netherlands over a row about... migration. PVV apparently wanted out, so they made unreasonable demands for migration policy that the other parties in the cabinet did not want to agree with, so the end result is an election at the end of October.
Currently, while PVV is in the lead, they're only a few points above the Labor–Green alliance and VVD, (all three parties are floating at about 20% right now) so it could be very close... though three months is quite a while. As a reminder, the Dutch House of Representatives is elected in a purely proportional representation system, with 15 parties in the current House (but only four with more than 10 seats).
Currently, while PVV is in the lead, they're only a few points above the Labor–Green alliance and VVD, (all three parties are floating at about 20% right now) so it could be very close... though three months is quite a while. As a reminder, the Dutch House of Representatives is elected in a purely proportional representation system, with 15 parties in the current House (but only four with more than 10 seats).
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fka vampireshark and doctor shark
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Re: Elections in various countries
Sounds like the Netherlands really fell off. They were once renowned for their liberal and progressive politics after all. Hopefully they pull away from the reactionary abyss in the next elections.
Re: Elections in various countries
They've always had a strong reactionary streak. That was noticed less internationally for a while because of a somewhat pragmatic stance on sex and drugs, and the work of a left-liberal coalition in the 1990s.
If you're seriously interested in their political and religious history - the religious history is more complicated than what people who know them mainly as the unofficial home country of the color orange might think - you can start here
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/kuyper.html
and then continue with the remaining parts of the series:
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/antithesis.html
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/unwilling.html
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/romanred.html
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/timesoftrouble.html
When I asked the author of that series how a country with such strong conservative forces ended up with such comparatively culturally liberal drugs- and prostitution policies, he wrote this:
https://www.quirksmode.org/politics/blo ... stion.html
Re: Elections in various countries
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 025-07-09/
Well thank you USA. Amazing. An entire country being punished because Trump got convinced by Brazilian national traitors that a judge's decisions were bad.
Can't wait to see Brazilian conservatives, who hate our country more than anyone else, defend it with their cuck mentality.
Upon being threatened by the USA, Canadians overwhelmingly rallied against Trump and in favour of their country and its institutions. Sadly, I know that isn't the case over here. Some Brazilians suffer from a profound inferiority complex.
Well thank you USA. Amazing. An entire country being punished because Trump got convinced by Brazilian national traitors that a judge's decisions were bad.
Can't wait to see Brazilian conservatives, who hate our country more than anyone else, defend it with their cuck mentality.
Upon being threatened by the USA, Canadians overwhelmingly rallied against Trump and in favour of their country and its institutions. Sadly, I know that isn't the case over here. Some Brazilians suffer from a profound inferiority complex.
Re: Elections in various countries
Equal parts horrifying and baffling. They can plainly read the historical record on far right politics and see where it's taking the US yet they still crave it with ever increasing intensity. The entire human race has gone insane and become addicted to evil.
Re: Elections in various countries
Well, all too many people these days are getting their information about what's happening in the world from sources that are telling them that Trump and friends are moving from triumph to triumph.
- WeepingElf
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Re: Elections in various countries
Yes. And despairing about that would be the wrong reaction even if it was true. JOIN THE RESISTANCE!!!
Re: Elections in various countries
What practical measures would you suggest? The far right has seemingly found an invincible formula for converting people by the millions that we simply don't understand or know how to counter.WeepingElf wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 10:05 amYes. And despairing about that would be the wrong reaction even if it was true. JOIN THE RESISTANCE!!!
Re: Elections in various countries
The far right feels the need to gerrymander here in the US because they don't see themselves as winning free and fair elections in the immediate future. This implies they are not invincible after all (and look at their tendency to lose special elections or, in deep red areas, to win them on only far narrower margins than would be expected).malloc wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 11:18 amWhat practical measures would you suggest? The far right has seemingly found an invincible formula for converting people by the millions that we simply don't understand or know how to counter.WeepingElf wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 10:05 amYes. And despairing about that would be the wrong reaction even if it was true. JOIN THE RESISTANCE!!!
Yaaludinuya siima d'at yiseka wohadetafa gaare.
Ennadinut'a gaare d'ate eetatadi siiman.
T'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa.
Ennadinut'a gaare d'ate eetatadi siiman.
T'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa t'awraa.
- WeepingElf
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Re: Elections in various countries
There are many possibilities. Vote for progressive candidates. Take part in public rallies. Sign petitions. Sue the government. Join an NGO. Speak out loud on the Internet. Everything people can do in a democracy (which is in mortal peril in the US, but not dead yet) to tell the public that they don't approve of the government. If everything fails, emigrate to a country where things are not (yet) that bad (Canada looks like a good choice, for instance).malloc wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 11:18 amWhat practical measures would you suggest?WeepingElf wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 10:05 amYes. And despairing about that would be the wrong reaction even if it was true. JOIN THE RESISTANCE!!!
Nope, the "formula" is not invincible. Especially Trump and his cronies look as if they don't have a "formula" at all, given how erratic their policies are.
- lëtzeshark
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Re: Elections in various countries
The Dutch election approaches at the end of October, and the polling is... wonky, to say the least. The latest polls put the far-right PVV and the center left Green Left–Labor alliance (running as a single, unified list) neck and neck, with about 30-ish seats each. Not too far behind them is the CDA, the center-right Christian democrats, at about 24-25 seats, while the longtime top polling party, the VVD (center right), has collapsed to below 20 seats due to a series of gaffes involving Dilan Yeşilgöz, the party leader (and probably their abysmal performance in/with the Schoof government). The other two parties in the outgoing government, the NSC (splinter from the CDA) and the BBB (right-wing populist agrarian party), have seen different fortunes: NSC's support has collapsed to the point that the NSC may not have any seats in the next House of Representatives, while BBB is polling about level. Other notable polling results include D66, a center-left party, with about 10 seats and JA21, a far-right party (and an offshoot of a different party, FvD, which was too racist for them), at about 10 seats. A majority is 76/150 seats, as a reminder, and the threshold for a party to get representation is 1/150 of the total votes cast.
That said, if PVV is still ahead in the polls and wins, other parties may not be willing to work with them (VVD claimed they're out, though they said that at the last election, and GL-PVDA as well), and a greater number of parties in a coalition will destabilize it: the last three governments, each four-party coalitions, collapsed before the expiration of the House of Representatives, albeit for different reasons in each case.
That said, if PVV is still ahead in the polls and wins, other parties may not be willing to work with them (VVD claimed they're out, though they said that at the last election, and GL-PVDA as well), and a greater number of parties in a coalition will destabilize it: the last three governments, each four-party coalitions, collapsed before the expiration of the House of Representatives, albeit for different reasons in each case.
fka vampireshark and doctor shark
The other kind of doctor.
Perpetually in search of banknote subjects. Inquire within.
The other kind of doctor.
Perpetually in search of banknote subjects. Inquire within.
Re: Elections in various countries
Clearly they are doing something right (or at least effective) given that they've managed to retain an incredible degree of popularity despite numerous scandals and disastrous policy outcomes. Meanwhile their counterparts in Europe keep gaining popular support with no end in sight. How would you explain the incredible rise of the AfD in your own country and what are your plans for stopping them?WeepingElf wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 2:10 pmNope, the "formula" is not invincible. Especially Trump and his cronies look as if they don't have a "formula" at all, given how erratic their policies are.
- WeepingElf
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Re: Elections in various countries
I have to admit that I don't have a "master plan" against the AfD, but I am a member and regular voter of the Green Party (don't forget that we have proportional representation in Germany, so such votes are not wasted; in the US, I'd vote Democrat), take part in anti-AfD rallies and protest marches, and run a blog where I discuss possible solutions to the current crisis. The novel I am planning to write will not only feature the Albic languages (my main conlang project), but also such solutions. It will be about an ethnic minority that works on a plan to overcome the current crisis.malloc wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 3:18 pmClearly they are doing something right (or at least effective) given that they've managed to retain an incredible degree of popularity despite numerous scandals and disastrous policy outcomes. Meanwhile their counterparts in Europe keep gaining popular support with no end in sight. How would you explain the incredible rise of the AfD in your own country and what are your plans for stopping them?WeepingElf wrote: ↑Sat Sep 06, 2025 2:10 pmNope, the "formula" is not invincible. Especially Trump and his cronies look as if they don't have a "formula" at all, given how erratic their policies are.
The rise of the far right is IMHO partly because many people expect the future to be worse than the present and therefore seek recourse in a past that they feel was better - and that is precisely what the far right offers them: a restoration of the past when men were men and women were women, everybody "knew their place in society" and accepted it, you could call dark-skinned people "niggers" and indigenous people "redskins", and all that.
There are simply too few good news in the media, too many TV features and newspaper stories about the problems and too few about the solutions. The media shout "Fire!" but do not show where the fire exits are; that causes people to panic. There are perhaps a hundred dystopian novels for each novel that lays out an optimistic and believable view of the near future. The faulty reasoning is, "In the present there are so many problems, in the past there were so few, and in the past there weren't any publicly queers, fewer immigrants, no talk about renewable energies and all that, so if we do away with queers, immigrants and wind turbines, we will get back to a better past". That is of course utter bullfrogs, but uneducated people are likely to swallow such nonsense.
I know that it is not easy, but I firmly believe that it can be done. If more people get a hopeful view of the future, they will be less receptive to the whispers of a better past the far right thrives on. You are a very intelligent and creative person, and you can do that, too.
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zompist
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Re: Elections in various countries
That's a really excellent and concise analysis!
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rotting bones
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Re: Elections in various countries
IIRC when Jeremy Corbyn was up for election, mainstream media eviscerated him as an antisemitic, transphobic bully. Because of shenanigans like this, the public has lost faith in mainstream media. This is in some ways a good thing, since they are corporate sellouts. Unfortunately, when the public loses faith in mainstream media, they trust the "things were good in my father's day, we used to beat women in my father's day" people more than those who want to maintain the existing order.
Saying you will maintain the existing order is a bad strategy in times when people feel like the system is not working for them. While the "left" is attacking it's radicals on behalf of its billionaire donors, only the right is proposing a comprehensive plan for change.
Reactionaries advertise their wealth and say they will make the voters wealthy. I think omnipresent Capitalist propaganda is responsible for eroding our common sense understanding that the rich are rich because we are poor. "The opposite of poverty isn't property. The opposite of both poverty and property is community." Also, it's hard to explain some leftist ideas without a lot of history lessons, like why enforcing many of the laws on the books is bad for most people.
I've seen Harris campaigners refusing to believe voters who told them they were suffering from economic anxiety. I think the "left" should stop being fanatically conservative, and show people we take their concerns seriously by proposing radical policies of our own.
A major portion of the fault for this debacle belongs to the center-"left" and it's willful refusal to understand human nature. Socialists have been telling them for decades that if you strategize against the radical left at every turn, you'll be stuck with the fascists instead. Most of them have been paid off, and the rest just don't listen. They only trust petit bourgeois community leaders and idiotic "experts" who have never once been right in my lifetime.
At first, working class fascists were saying they oppose immigration because the "left" no longer tolerates criticism of tradition and religions. That was back in the day, when the "left" still had some legitimacy. See what the polls are saying about the Democratic Party these days: https://youtu.be/ZtMyZSj9scM?si=p-RD_t_DoNrQJK9Y
Working class fascists are too far gone now. From outside, the people trapped inside the propaganda network look either like they forget every 5 years (have younger voters forgotten 2008?), or 21st century people are pathologically incapable of believing leftists: Want to create jobs that feed the poor? Don't you know they had bread lines in the Soviet Union??? Relevance and irrelevance are immaterial as long as the conclusion is that leftism can't possibly be right.
Saying you will maintain the existing order is a bad strategy in times when people feel like the system is not working for them. While the "left" is attacking it's radicals on behalf of its billionaire donors, only the right is proposing a comprehensive plan for change.
Reactionaries advertise their wealth and say they will make the voters wealthy. I think omnipresent Capitalist propaganda is responsible for eroding our common sense understanding that the rich are rich because we are poor. "The opposite of poverty isn't property. The opposite of both poverty and property is community." Also, it's hard to explain some leftist ideas without a lot of history lessons, like why enforcing many of the laws on the books is bad for most people.
I've seen Harris campaigners refusing to believe voters who told them they were suffering from economic anxiety. I think the "left" should stop being fanatically conservative, and show people we take their concerns seriously by proposing radical policies of our own.
A major portion of the fault for this debacle belongs to the center-"left" and it's willful refusal to understand human nature. Socialists have been telling them for decades that if you strategize against the radical left at every turn, you'll be stuck with the fascists instead. Most of them have been paid off, and the rest just don't listen. They only trust petit bourgeois community leaders and idiotic "experts" who have never once been right in my lifetime.
At first, working class fascists were saying they oppose immigration because the "left" no longer tolerates criticism of tradition and religions. That was back in the day, when the "left" still had some legitimacy. See what the polls are saying about the Democratic Party these days: https://youtu.be/ZtMyZSj9scM?si=p-RD_t_DoNrQJK9Y
Working class fascists are too far gone now. From outside, the people trapped inside the propaganda network look either like they forget every 5 years (have younger voters forgotten 2008?), or 21st century people are pathologically incapable of believing leftists: Want to create jobs that feed the poor? Don't you know they had bread lines in the Soviet Union??? Relevance and irrelevance are immaterial as long as the conclusion is that leftism can't possibly be right.
- WeepingElf
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Re: Elections in various countries
Thank you! I have noticed quite a while ago that we think alike on many things.
Re: Elections in various countries
Unfortunately the French parliament has collapsed. That effectively clears the way for the far right to take power in France once new elections are held. So much work went into keeping them out last year and all for naught.
Re: Elections in various countries
As I understand it, the whole reason for the instability of this government is that no-one was willing to work with the far-right. And I don’t believe this has changed.
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zompist
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Re: Elections in various countries
My impression is that besides keeping RN (Le Pen's party) out, Macron insisted on sidelining the left.
RN has 126 of 577 seats in the National Assembly-- 22%. (Cue malloc screaming "they're unstoppable!") France Insoumise plus the Socialists have 138.
Macron's preferred coalition had 213 seats, which is far less than 577/2. But centrists gonna center, I guess.
(Most here may know this, but just in case: France has a weird division of powers between president and prime minister. Macron's own party is currently called Groupe Ensemble pour la République, 99 seats. The prime minister, Bayrou, was from the much smaller Mouvement démocrate.)