War in the Middle East, again

[rotting bones]

Did anyone hear the gossip? A neocon ran into Trump and convinced him that the bombing run wouldn't take boots on the ground and would make him look amazing. Trump did what was basically a vanity bombing.

[Raphael]

Did anyone hear the gossip? A neocon ran into Trump and convinced him that the bombing run wouldn't take boots on the ground and would make him look amazing. Trump did what was basically a vanity bombing.

Not sure about that exact sequence of events, but yes, it was a vanity bombing.

[romddude]

Yes, because not calling going to war claiming the existence of the other country is a historical error and the idea of it is false, requiring your own curriculum to be taught in the occupied areas of that country, which teaches that view as fact, abducting children from said country to get them adopted by Russian families¹, etc. on top of relentless akd indiscriminate killing a genocide while calling another country's relentless and indiscriminate killing² one is totally not hypocritical in any way.
¹ There's an ICC warrant for Putin and his children's commissioner for that somewhere

I'm not defending Putin or his actions and do agree with the ICC warrant on him, I was just drawing light into the fact that Israel is performing a far superior evil to any other country in the world and comparisons are going to be shallow.

I would not say that Putin so far is performing genocide as of now, but the deportation of children is the framework upon which genocide can be built. There is a distinction between repressing a culture and forbidding their expression and manifestation, and outright trying to eradicate that culture. Putin has so far committed crimes against humanity against Ukrainians and laid the seeds for a genocide, but has not yet implemented a programme of full genocide.

[Raphael]

Reports that Iran hit US base in Qatar. Sigh.

[keenir]

Reports that Iran hit US base in Qatar. Sigh.

Is it too much to ask for, that Trump's gift plane was there?

[WeepingElf]

I still don't think this was the beginning of WWIII. Putin and Xi are brutal, but not mad. They are rational enough to know that the United States are too big an enemy, and neither of the two really has strong sympathies with the zealous Islamism of the Iranian regime. What unites them with Iran is the notion that "the West" is their antagonist in the world theatre, and nothing beyond that. Faced with the choice between WWIII and dropping Iran like a hot potato, they'd choose the latter. So I think the worst we are likely to get is a trade war ushering in a global economic crisis the likes of which the world hasn't seen for 80 years. Yet, nobody knows what will happen, and it is worrying.

[Raphael]

I don't think the Iranian regime, as bad as it is, is suicidally mad, either. So far, their response seems to have been to attack a mostly empty US base in Qatar, and even warn the Qataris in advance. Might have been meant to signal that they thought they had to do something, but didn't want to do too much.

In that context, this old Bret Devereaux post might be interesting: https://acoup.blog/2023/10/27/fireside- ... -strategy/

[keenir]

So, appearantly, the President says Iran has thousands of sleeper cells in the US, ready to kill.

Bear in mind, this is the same guy, who said New York was full of celebrations celebrating 9/11, and, more recently, that other countries are emptying their jails into America.

He's probably going to try riling up the MAGA et al, to attack anyone who "looks Iranian".

[Raphael]

So, appearantly, the President says Iran has thousands of sleeper cells in the US, ready to kill.

Bear in mind, this is the same guy, who said New York was full of celebrations celebrating 9/11, and, more recently, that other countries are emptying their jails into America.

He's probably going to try riling up the MAGA et al, to attack anyone who "looks Iranian".

Shit.

[rotting bones]

I don't think the Iranian regime, as bad as it is, is suicidally mad, either. So far, their response seems to have been to attack a mostly empty US base in Qatar, and even warn the Qataris in advance. Might have been meant to signal that they thought they had to do something, but didn't want to do too much.

In that context, this old Bret Devereaux post might be interesting: https://acoup.blog/2023/10/27/fireside- ... -strategy/

I heard Iran's internal war councils consist of a lot of debates about how to not turn the general public against them, even in other countries. They are tired of fighting their own public over things like the hijab. And according to their true believers, the purpose of Shia ideology is to "fight oppression". Shiism is what an emancipatory revolution could have looked like if it had been conceived in the Middle Ages by people who didn't know shit.

Officially, they antagonize Israel because of their treatment of Palestinians. Strategically, they think resolving the Palestinian issue will give them a leadership position in the Muslim world, bringing them geopolitical clout, convert people to Shia Islam and collect more khums for Shia scholars. Their plans for outreach would be jeopardized if the general public turns against them.

If it's true that they are trying to avoid antagonizing the public, they have already failed miserably because of all the extreme statements they make, not to mention the war crimes they committed.

[rotting bones]

Also Trump says Iran and Israel now have a ceasefire.

[keenir]

I heard Iran's internal war councils consist of a lot of debates about how to not turn the general public against them, even in other countries

Their plans for outreach would be jeopardized if the general public turns against them.

If it's true that they are trying to avoid antagonizing the public, they have already failed miserably

PR is like running from a bear: you don't have to be the best/fastest out there...you just have to be seen as less bad than/faster than the other guy.

[rotting bones]

Also Trump says Iran and Israel now have a ceasefire.

Breaking unverified online gossip:

After the ceasefire was announced, Israel ramped up attacks on Tehran, possibly the heaviest since the conflict started. Iran says Trump's announcement was fake, but they will still accept the ceasefire if Israel stops attacking first. This is a problem because Trump announced there will be a ceasefire if Iran lets Israel bomb them for a whole 12 hours after they stop attacking.

Iran is telling their supporters these games demonstrate why they fight Israel in the first place. I know Israel has always been genocidal, but I don't think they relied so heavily on their cult to support them no matter what in the past.

[Raphael]

Also Trump says Iran and Israel now have a ceasefire.

Breaking unverified online gossip:

After the ceasefire was announced, Israel ramped up attacks on Tehran, possibly the heaviest since the conflict started. Iran says Trump's announcement was fake, but they will still accept the ceasefire if Israel stops attacking first. This is a problem because Trump announced there will be a ceasefire if Iran lets Israel bomb them for a whole 12 hours after they stop attacking.

If true, I'd say it means that someone showed Trump poll numbers of how "popular" the prospect of going to war with Iran is in the US, and when he saw those numbers, he was desperately looking for some way to get out, and thought he could make the war end by saying it would end.

Different, worse possibility: Russian moves made him think this could blow up all the way, and he was desperately looking for a way to prevent that.

More gossip: I've seen reports that the US attacks started in the first place because Trump watched reports about the Israeli attacks on Fox, and those reports (or, if you prefer, "reports") made the whole thing look like Israel was really cool for attacking, and when Trump saw those reports, he wanted to look cool, too.

[rotting bones]

They are saying Trump is indirectly asking Iran for a ceasefire.

Iran has also fired missiles at Israel. But if the attacks stop in about 2 minutes (?), then the ceasefire could start, allowing Israel to restock their defensive missiles and Iran to pursue a joint defensive pact with Russia and China. Iran will probably be rushing for nukes now before Israel breaks the ceasefire in two weeks, to the acclamation of the "civilized" world.

Iran is already spinning a new propaganda angle about weathering the collective might of the West. Their supporters are praying for the coming of the Mahdi.

I remember how decades ago, all the religions used to say they are praying for the same messiah. These days, all the sects are accusing each other of praying for the coming of their equivalent of the Anti-Christ.

To be fair, in the stories of the Jewish Messiah in the Zohar, he is decidedly not meek. He's kind of a stickler for the rules. He says those who don't follow the rules as he understands them deserve death. One point of common ground is that he describes himself as armed in the "sword of the Torah". That reminded me of what Jesus said about bringing a sword into the world.

Taking such differences seriously is all the fault of the "intelligence" cult. Snap out of it, and join me in glorious stupidity.

[Raphael]

Taking such differences seriously is all the fault of the "intelligence" cult. Snap out of it, and join me in glorious stupidity.

I don't always agree with you, but I don't think a truly stupid person could have written most of your posts.

[rotting bones]

I don't always agree with you, but I don't think a truly stupid person could have written most of your posts.

I don't think humans have transcendent intelligence. What we can do are 3 things: 1. Observe objects, 2. track their movements in memory, whether internal or external, and 3. reason about the recorded movements of objects. This reasoning takes the form of a) objective accounting and b) extrapolations, i.e. educated guessing.

Accounting alone is insufficient for survival. There is no such thing as an ability to guess correctly in the general case. In that sense, intelligence doesn't exist.

Claims of greater intelligence is either greater diligence in (1), (2), (3a) and/or (3b), self-delusion, or a power play to claim authoritarian supremacy over others. It is when we overcome the delusion of intelligence that we can dedicate ourselves to true diligence in practicing (1), (2), (3a) and (3b) with full transparency about what we are doing to ourselves and others.

[keenir]

in a recent issue of, I believe it was the NYT...

Appearantly, Israel was planning to dismantle the power structure of authoritarianism in Iran (i ceede that the paper didn't put it that messiliy)...and left the Supreme Ruler in place, though Bibi wanted him dead.

Now, maybe its just me, but that made me think "wait, of all the possible Israeli politicians who could possibly be unaware of the concept of a martyr - Bibi's the one??" oi vey.

[Raphael]

Now, maybe its just me, but that made me think "wait, of all the possible Israeli politicians who could possibly be unaware of the concept of a martyr - Bibi's the one??" oi vey.

Well, Netanyahu took part in a campaign of hate that ended up turning one of his political opponents into a martyr - and it didn't hurt Netanyahu's own career all that much.

[bradrn]

Now, maybe its just me, but that made me think "wait, of all the possible Israeli politicians who could possibly be unaware of the concept of a martyr - Bibi's the one??" oi vey.

Well, Netanyahu took part in a campaign of hate that ended up turning one of his political opponents into a martyr - and it didn't hurt Netanyahu's own career all that much.

Wait, what are you referring to?