British Politics Guide

[Frislander]

I would ask the Supreme Court of the UK if Article 50 can be unilaterally canceled. If so, I'd do that and then hold a second referendum; I think that in the last several months there's been enough evidence of illegal campaign activity to invalidate the original. If Article 50 can't be unilaterally cancelled from the point of UK law, I'd negotiate with Europe for a bilateral withdrawal. If they refuse, then I'd try to get leaders of the SNP and Remainer and Brexit factions of both major parties into a room and refuse to let them out of it until they have a plan that Europe can accept or until a medical emergency among one of them. Also, my cabinet would consist of politicians from all over the political spectrum except because this is a crisis that requires a national unity government.

The ECJ has already said we could unilaterally cancel it, and while from a PR standpoint that does nothing to placate Brexiteers, seeking the confirmation of the Supreme Court wouldn't help either, because they're just as tarnished as the ECJ at this point.

[mèþru]

It's not for PR but to assess whether it is legal not just in EU law, but in UK law. The ECJ ruling only confirmed for EU law.

[zompist]

At this point, I think there's only one practical option left to May, and that's to resign. Will it help much? Not really. But by staying on, she pretty much ensures No Deal. The deal she negotiated isn't going to change, and 200 MPs aren't going to warm up to it in two months. Especially not with her as the saleswoman.

She seems to be competent as a technocrat, and terrible as a politician. Evidently her team negotiated the deal in complete darkness, neglecting to take her own Brexit Minister on board, to say nothing of her cabinet, her party, or Parliament. She tried to brazen it though her cabinet, which only served to show that they weren't behind her. Given her particular set of red lines, she might have got the best Theresa May deal she could have gotten. But the one thing Parliament can agree on is that they hate it.

If she resigns, that offers at least two possible improvements:
* It's an excuse to ask for an extension, which would allow some actual renegotiation.
* Or, maybe the next leader can sell May's plan better than she could.

I remember enough of Sal's commentaries to realize that the pool of alternatives is pretty dismal. But "they're not Theresa May" is looking like a better qualification all the time.

[alice]

At this point, I think there's only one practical option left to May, and that's to resign.

Unfortunately, if she was ever going to resign, she would have done it long ago. She's safe from a leadership challenge until December, don't forget.

[zompist]

Unfortunately, if she was ever going to resign, she would have done it long ago. She's safe from a leadership challenge until December, don't forget.

Yes, that's why she's the only person who can get rid of herself. And the December revolt was a big fat misstep; it might have had a chance if it was held after the vote on her deal. (Maybe not, of course. Her party and her coalition have very clearly stated that they're entirely behind her, they just hate everything she does.)

[chris_notts]

The rumour is that Labour might well be the first party to split under the pressure of Brexit, although I doubt it will happen before Brexit day and the situation is so dynamic that everything could change. Let's just hope that a major split doesn't manage to produce a situation where:

1. The Conservatives continue to have a Brexit meltdown and stuff it up

2. Everyone sane hates them

3. But the sane people split their vote between Labour 1 and Labour 2

4. We end up with a stronger batshit crazy Conservative government next time round, despite the fact the majority hate their guts

5. The right interpret this as an endorsement for their crazy ideas about turning the UK into a clone of the US and we end up with more privatisation, a terrible privatised health-care system, more wars and bombing of innocent brown people, etc.

Knowing our luck, this is what's going to happen.

[Salmoneus]

Yes. Except perhaps the war bit, I'm not sure they're actually more warry than Labour are.

I don't think it'll actually happen, though - precisely because they're afraid of this SNP#2 scenario. I know there's been a burst of speculation, but so far it's supposedly only about half a dozen MPs who are thinking of resigning the whip. They could be the condensation nucleus for an actual rival party... or they could just be labour-leaning independents who decide that the labour brand isn't necessary in their constituencies. The only person actively promoting a Labour split at the moment is Vince Cable...

Of course, the Tories may not even need a Labour split. Corbyn's favourability is now 22%, and his net is -45%, his lowest level of support ever. Labour have effectively managed to undo the last couple of years of progress and put themselves right back where they were. The Tories are apparently around 41%, which is actually pretty decent in the UK, given our minor parties. 20% of self-identified Labour voters want the Tories to remain in power until at least 2022.

Worryingly, 43% of people say they don't know what the backstop even is. 28% are at the point where they think it would be appropriate for the Queen to intervene on Brexit policy, and 18% aren't sure.


Regarding the possibility of Tory dominance, however, the really worrying thing is how dramatically the country is shifting to the right, particularly among millennials, who are miles right of the old consensus. Labour's policies are currently popular, but they're wasting potentially their last opportunity before the new right take over for a generation.

[Frislander]

Well shit looks like Nissan's actually doing what was painted as "project fear" during the referendum and is putting the Sunderland plant in jeopardy, this'll go down well.

Regarding the possibility of Tory dominance, however, the really worrying thing is how dramatically the country is shifting to the right, particularly among millennials, who are miles right of the old consensus. Labour's policies are currently popular, but they're wasting potentially their last opportunity before the new right take over for a generation.

I wonder 1 where you're getting this information from and 2 why this might be. Might it partly be because the right as a whole is just more right-wing than before, so self-identified right-wing millenials will come out looking more right-wing than the equivalent sector of older generations?

[Salmoneus]

I could have sworn it was a yougov survey, but I can't find it, so maybe it was another company.

Anyway, its point was that while the young are more likely to see themselves as 'left-wing', 'progressive', 'liberal', etc, their positions on the core traditional left-wing policies - the welfare state, progressive taxation, nationalisation, unionisation, regulation of business, etc - are far to the right of the previous generation (which actually is/was rather left-wing at least in theory).

[mèþru]

I read that in the US that Gen-Z tends to be much more socially liberal than previous generations while being generally fiscally conservative. It does seem on the Net that everyone near my age is either a die-hard libertarian or a die-hard communist.

[Linguoboy]

Regarding the special place in hell line, a representative for the British prime minister told reporters, “I think it is a question for Donald Tusk as to whether he considers the use of that kind of language to be helpful.”

I think the British prime minister has mistaken Donald Tusk for someone who actually gives a fuck.

[Salmoneus]

She's just glad of the distraction.

Brexit update:

- as you know, the PM lost, overwhelmingly, the vote on her deal (Plan A)
- as a result, she committed to holding serious talks with all parties to listen, hear, communicate, and formulate consensually a Plan B
- she revealed that Plan B was exactly the same as Plan A, but this time she'd ask for the backstop to be reviewed
- the EU said no
- Parliament was going to rebel, so the PM promised them a new vote on the new improved Plan B
- Parliament mostly accepted that, but made the PM promise to go and remove the backstop, and the PM pretended this was her idea (by whipping her own party to vote for the amendment that nullified her own proposal)
- the PM asked the EU to remove the backstop
- the EU said no
- so no, the PM has declared that she's absolutely committed to the backstop, and has never dreamt of wanting it removed. At the same time, the backstop will be altered, in such a way that it no longer exists; but also, it will exist.

Having the backstop AND not having the backstop is an even more popular position than just not having the backstop, so the PM is onto a real winner here, politically.


-----

Meanwhile, on the collapse of the party system front: Vince Cable (leader, as we all keep forgetting, of the Lib Dems) has publically said that there are at least 20 Labour MPs ready to defect, and at least 6 Tories too. 20 + 6 + 11 (the Lib Dem MPs) is... well, still not back to where the Lib Dems were a few years ago, but it's something.

There's a hitch, though: everyone has now apparently agreed that having a third party is so toxic it would immediately be destroyed by angry rampaging mobs and they'd all lose their seats. So the "defectors" won't actually form a "party", just a "cross-party alliance". With, you know, no leader, and no consensus on policies, and representing the whole range of policy views. So, yeah, next revolution in British politics, just around the corner I'm sure...

[Richard W]

She seems to be competent as a technocrat, and terrible as a politician. Evidently her team negotiated the deal in complete darkness, neglecting to take her own Brexit Minister on board, to say nothing of her cabinet, her party, or Parliament. She tried to brazen it though her cabinet, which only served to show that they weren't behind her. Given her particular set of red lines, she might have got the best Theresa May deal she could have gotten. But the one thing Parliament can agree on is that they hate it.

The reverse view of her competencies is quite popular, e.g. the partially suppressed Daily Telegraph article at https://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read ... -campaign/.

[Frislander]

Regarding the special place in hell line, a representative for the British prime minister told reporters, “I think it is a question for Donald Tusk as to whether he considers the use of that kind of language to be helpful.”

I think the British prime minister has mistaken Donald Tusk for someone who actually gives a fuck.

He and the taoiseach shared a joke about this immediately afterwards, and why not? Essentially the only people that will get angry about this kind of statement are British tabloids and Brexiteers, neither of whom can actually do any real damage to him.

[Frislander]

Small semi-entertaining diversion.

So there's at Cambridge, specifically Gonville and Caius [kʰiːz] college, there is a Dr Victoria Bateman, a fellow in economics, and she has a bit of a... gimmick when it comes to promoting feminism, in that she likes to go to conferences in the nude. This has led to her being well-known among the Cambridge student body as a whole, because you know what it's kinda fun that a fellow in economics likes to go naked for feminism just because. But she's now appeared on Today (the morning news program on BBC Radio 4) in the nude (so far so normal) and challenged Jacob Rees-Mogg to debate Brexit with her... also in the nude. Now of course there's no way this event will actually happen, but honestly just the thought of JRM in the nude sends a bit of a shudder down my spine.

[alice]

but honestly just the thought of JRM in the nude sends a bit of a shudder down my spine.

Aaargh!!!! Cannot unsee!!!!!

[Salmoneus]

A shocking new development!

The PM has declared she hasn't quite finished working out Plan B, so the Final Decisive Vote on Brexit will now not happen until the end of this month. And she promises, if she's not ready to have that vote by the end of the month, then Parliament will be allowed a vote to suggest some alternative ideas that they'd like to work on (in the 4 weeks that will remain until Brexit).

We're all shocked, shocked I tell you.

[Moose-tache]

Twist ending: the "B" stands for "backstop."

[mèþru]

COlleges that don't try to prosecute people for nudity? I'm already jealous that you got into Oxbridge; no need to rub salt in the wound.

[Raphael]

COlleges that don't try to prosecute people for nudity? I'm already jealous that you got into Oxbridge; no need to rub salt in the wound.

I don't think that British educational institutions have the authority to prosecute anyone, though I might be wrong on that.