Elections in various countries

[bradrn]

Unfortunately the French parliament has collapsed. That effectively clears the way for the far right to take power in France once new elections are held. So much work went into keeping them out last year and all for naught.

As I understand it, the whole reason for the instability of this government is that no-one was willing to work with the far-right. And I don’t believe this has changed.

My impression is that besides keeping RN (Le Pen's party) out, Macron insisted on sidelining the left.

RN has 126 of 577 seats in the National Assembly-- 22%. (Cue malloc screaming "they're unstoppable!") France Insoumise plus the Socialists have 138.

Well… to be quite honest I wouldn’t want those two parties in government either. Still, if I was forced to choose, they’re preferable to RN.

[Ares Land]

The parliament is fine; only the government is out!

The president can call for new elections now (it's been more than a year since the last legislative elections, so calling for new ones is now allowed) but it's only one option among many, and probably not the most likely one.

Bayrou was a weak PM from the beginning (he is involved in a child abuse scandal in Catholic boarding schools), so the outcome isn't entirely surprising.
One problem is Macron sidelining the left, and he and his government insisted on right-wing policies that they don't have a majority for -- unless they're willing to serve at the far-right's pleasure (they kind of tried that before.)

Admittedly, France Insoumise is impossible to work with. My views of them has seriously dimmed in the past years. They're not as bad as the far-right -- but they're certainly doing their best to catch up.

One rumor is that Macron would name a PS (centre-left) PM, which could work.

But I'll make no predictions. Macron sometimes likes to defend his prerogatives by doing the unexpected. So who knows?
Again, he could call for new elections -- but I don't think it makes sense and he probably won't.

The next elections will be the municipal elections in 2026, and the presidential elections in 2027. The far-right is very strong and should not be underestimated. But they're not unstoppable either, far from it.

Other unknowns: there's a call for gilet jaunes-like protests, starting tomorrow. I don't think much will happen, but again, not sure.

[lëtzeshark]

The other thing to note is that, unlike in other countries, the government collapsing like a wicker chair in France does not require a new election be called. It is, of course, an option, and it's the option Rassemblement National is clamoring for... which is why Macron's unlikely to go for it.

I think the problem here was, indeed, Macron pretty clearly refusing the offers from the left (even though NUPES holds the greatest number of seats, at 180) and only going for a right-wing government (Barnier and now Bayrou)... which, indeed, is more preferable compared to a hard-right coalition, but it just doesn't have the numbers. The most stable option, I think, is to find somebody willing to built a grand coalition (effectively, something like EN + PS + LR + enough others to make the 289 seats) to hold things off until at least the présidentielle in two years' time. Another option could be, in principle, NUPES + EN, but, again, Mélénchon is quite a... character. A grand coalition, though, would be uncharted waters for French politics: the French two-round system is designed to produce majorities, and both 2022 and 2024 gave us situations where there were no majorities.

New elections might also not work for the RN, especially if the strategic voting pattern that emerged in 2024 happens again. (As a reminder, their "coalition" massively underperformed: ~37% of the popular vote in round 2, but only 24.6% of the seats.) But, on verra.

[MacAnDàil]

As I understand it, the whole reason for the instability of this government is that no-one was willing to work with the far-right. And I don’t believe this has changed.

My impression is that besides keeping RN (Le Pen's party) out, Macron insisted on sidelining the left.

RN has 126 of 577 seats in the National Assembly-- 22%. (Cue malloc screaming "they're unstoppable!") France Insoumise plus the Socialists have 138.

Well… to be quite honest I wouldn’t want those two parties in government either. Still, if I was forced to choose, they’re preferable to RN.

Why not?

Admittedly, France Insoumise is impossible to work with. My views of them has seriously dimmed in the past years. They're not as bad as the far-right -- but they're certainly doing their best to catch up.

On the one hand, we have allied with the other left-wing parties from 2022. On the other, some members seem to be keener to attack Glucksmann or the Socialist Party than anyone else. What made your views dim?

One rumor is that Macron would name a PS (centre-left) PM, which could work.

Sébastien Lecornu, a member of various Macron governments as Overseas and Military Minister, so he's sticking to his guns even more.

Other unknowns: there's a call for gilet jaunes-like protests, starting tomorrow. I don't think much will happen, but again, not sure.

It is notable that they are supported by all the major left-wing parties and some trade unions but were initially called for in a Tiktok video by a minor Frexit-proning group.

Here on our campus, the students who placarded in favour of the protest were chucked out for preparing the signs on Monday.

I think the problem here was, indeed, Macron pretty clearly refusing the offers from the left (even though NUPES holds the greatest number of seats, at 180) and only going for a right-wing government (Barnier and now Bayrou)... which, indeed, is more preferable compared to a hard-right coalition, but it just doesn't have the numbers. The most stable option, I think, is to find somebody willing to built a grand coalition (effectively, something like EN + PS + LR + enough others to make the 289 seats) to hold things off until at least the présidentielle in two years' time. Another option could be, in principle, NUPES + EN, but, again, Mélénchon is quite a... character. A grand coalition, though, would be uncharted waters for French politics: the French two-round system is designed to produce majorities, and both 2022 and 2024 gave us situations where there were no majorities.

Yes in general. Technical nitpicking, since last year, the left-wing coalition changed name and broadened to become the New Popular Front (NFP). Also, others in the NFP are not too keen a NFP + EN coalition. One major problem is neither wanting to cooperate nor anyone having an absolute majority. Most surprising to me was a quarter of the Republicans voting against the government that they are part of.

New elections might also not work for the RN, especially if the strategic voting pattern that emerged in 2024 happens again. (As a reminder, their "coalition" massively underperformed: ~37% of the popular vote in round 2, but only 24.6% of the seats.) But, on verra.

This strategic voting pattern was usual in France but it was underestimated to which extent it still functioned.

[Raphael]

Oh damn:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2enwk1l9e1t

[Ares Land]

Oh damn:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2enwk1l9e1t

Yeah, that's worrying.

On the one hand, we have allied with the other left-wing parties from 2022. On the other, some members seem to be keener to attack Glucksmann or the Socialist Party than anyone else. What made your views dim?

Quite a few problems. One of them, maybe the most serious, is not taking antisemitism seriously -- and, as it happens, left-wing antisemitism is a problem, especially with some LFI members.
Another is views on foreign policy that are bordering on dangerously naive.
Yet another is being completely unwilling to work with other left-wing parties. The constant attacks on the PS are bothersome; it took ages to come up with a potential prime minister even after last years' election.
Last years' campaign was constantly polluted and interrupted by various antics and infighting within LFI, which I won't forgive them for. People were doing their damnedest to fight off the far right -- while the LFI leadership was engaging in purges.

More largely, they seem less interested in governing through democratic process than they used to. What they look interested in is popular revolt or even revolution.

To be frank, I'm really angry at LFI. We're supposed to be fighting off far-right racist authoritarian, and what do we get? An antisemitic, authoritarian and violent "left-wing" party.

(Putting "left-wing" into scare quotes, because they're doing their best to prove the horseshoe theory right anyway.)

It is notable that they are supported by all the major left-wing parties and some trade unions but were initially called for in a Tiktok video by a minor Frexit-proning group.

The movement was initially promoted by the far right, which I do find bothersome.

Sébastien Lecornu, a member of various Macron governments as Overseas and Military Minister, so he's sticking to his guns even more.

Very close to Macron, or so they say. On one hand, well, we get (almost) two more years of the same. On the other hand, I don't think the left would have survived leading a government under the circumstances, so it's probably for the best, in a way.

[Travis B.]

Quite a few problems. One of them, maybe the most serious, is not taking antisemitism seriously -- and, as it happens, left-wing antisemitism is a problem, especially with some LFI members.

Left-wing anti-Semitism only serves to discredit the left and legitimate criticisms of Israel in general; it is a distraction from the actual issues at hand. This kind of thing is why I strongly oppose supporters and sympathizers of Hamas despite that everything that the Israeli gov't has done has been, overall, so much worse, because by sympathizing with Hamas they open the door to partisans of the Israeli gov't and the Israeli right in general discrediting opposition to the actions of the Israel gov't.

[WeepingElf]

Quite a few problems. One of them, maybe the most serious, is not taking antisemitism seriously -- and, as it happens, left-wing antisemitism is a problem, especially with some LFI members.

Left-wing anti-Semitism only serves to discredit the left and legitimate criticisms of Israel in general; it is a distraction from the actual issues at hand. This kind of thing is why I strongly oppose supporters and sympathizers of Hamas despite that everything that the Israeli gov't has done has been, overall, so much worse, because by sympathizing with Hamas they open the door to partisans of the Israeli gov't and the Israeli right in general discrediting opposition to the actions of the Israel gov't.

Yes. Face it: the Hamas are fanatics who had set up a nasty reactionary totalitarian regime in the Gaza strip and committed a terrorist act second only to 9/11 (and, in relation to the small size of the target country, relatively worse than 9/11), and deserve no sympathy from people who consider themselves progressive. So there was some justification for Israel to strike against the Hamas - but the Israeli leadership equated the entire population of the Gaza strip with the Hamas, and under this pretext, have been committing crimes against humanity which are as unacceptable as the Hamas terrorist acts.

[Travis B.]

Quite a few problems. One of them, maybe the most serious, is not taking antisemitism seriously -- and, as it happens, left-wing antisemitism is a problem, especially with some LFI members.

Left-wing anti-Semitism only serves to discredit the left and legitimate criticisms of Israel in general; it is a distraction from the actual issues at hand. This kind of thing is why I strongly oppose supporters and sympathizers of Hamas despite that everything that the Israeli gov't has done has been, overall, so much worse, because by sympathizing with Hamas they open the door to partisans of the Israeli gov't and the Israeli right in general discrediting opposition to the actions of the Israel gov't.

Yes. Face it: the Hamas are fanatics who had set up a nasty reactionary totalitarian regime in the Gaza strip and committed a terrorist act second only to 9/11 (and, in relation to the small size of the target country, relatively worse than 9/11), and deserve no sympathy from people who consider themselves progressive. So there was some justification for Israel to strike against the Hamas - but the Israeli leadership equated the entire population of the Gaza strip with the Hamas, and under this pretext, have been committing crimes against humanity which are as unacceptable as the Hamas terrorist acts.

Agreed completely.

[WeepingElf]

Left-wing anti-Semitism only serves to discredit the left and legitimate criticisms of Israel in general; it is a distraction from the actual issues at hand. This kind of thing is why I strongly oppose supporters and sympathizers of Hamas despite that everything that the Israeli gov't has done has been, overall, so much worse, because by sympathizing with Hamas they open the door to partisans of the Israeli gov't and the Israeli right in general discrediting opposition to the actions of the Israel gov't.

Yes. Face it: the Hamas are fanatics who had set up a nasty reactionary totalitarian regime in the Gaza strip and committed a terrorist act second only to 9/11 (and, in relation to the small size of the target country, relatively worse than 9/11), and deserve no sympathy from people who consider themselves progressive. So there was some justification for Israel to strike against the Hamas - but the Israeli leadership equated the entire population of the Gaza strip with the Hamas, and under this pretext, have been committing crimes against humanity which are as unacceptable as the Hamas terrorist acts.

Agreed completely.

Thank you. What should be done is IMHO that the civilian government of the Gaza strip is transferred to the Palestinian autonomy authority (I know it doesn't do a very good job, but it is the closest we have to a legitimate Palestinian government) while the security is guaranteed by an international peacekeeping force with a UN mandate.

[Travis B.]

Yes. Face it: the Hamas are fanatics who had set up a nasty reactionary totalitarian regime in the Gaza strip and committed a terrorist act second only to 9/11 (and, in relation to the small size of the target country, relatively worse than 9/11), and deserve no sympathy from people who consider themselves progressive. So there was some justification for Israel to strike against the Hamas - but the Israeli leadership equated the entire population of the Gaza strip with the Hamas, and under this pretext, have been committing crimes against humanity which are as unacceptable as the Hamas terrorist acts.

Agreed completely.

Thank you. What should be done is IMHO that the civilian government of the Gaza strip is transferred to the Palestinian autonomy authority (I know it doesn't do a very good job, but it is the closest we have to a legitimate Palestinian government) while the security is guaranteed by an international peacekeeping force with a UN mandate.

Unfortunately the Israeli gov't has been doing everything it can to undermine any sort of Palestinian autonomy, as shown by its actions in the West Bank, so I highly doubt they would allow this even though it is what should be done (despite the major issues with the Palestinian Authority).

[WeepingElf]

Agreed completely.

Thank you. What should be done is IMHO that the civilian government of the Gaza strip is transferred to the Palestinian autonomy authority (I know it doesn't do a very good job, but it is the closest we have to a legitimate Palestinian government) while the security is guaranteed by an international peacekeeping force with a UN mandate.

Unfortunately the Israeli gov't has been doing everything it can to undermine any sort of Palestinian autonomy, as shown by its actions in the West Bank, so I highly doubt they would allow this even though it is what should be done (despite the major issues with the Palestinian Authority).

Of course they won't allow this, and Trump will back whatever Netanyahu will do, even if he decided to send the Palestinians on a death march into the Negev desert. Meanwhile, a war between Russia and the EU+UK is becoming more likely, so we Europeans will probably have more urgent concerns.

[Zju]

Meanwhile Bolsonaro was found guilty of plotting a coup.

[Ares Land]

Meanwhile Bolsonaro was found guilty of plotting a coup.

Yes, and him being judged and condemned is great news, really! (Though it seems there are plans for a pardon?)

[MacAnDàil]

That antisemitism and authoritarianism are immoral is certain. What I am unaware of is proof of that in LFI. I do attest to the in-left fhighting and some naiviety in the foreign policy, however.

[Ares Land]

That antisemitism and authoritarianism are immoral is certain. What I am unaware of is proof of that in LFI. I do attest to the in-left fhighting and some naiviety in the foreign policy, however.

There were several antisemitic incidents; one that comes to mind is Hanouna's caricature (... AI generated, to add a bit of stupidity to the whole mess), others is dogwhistles about 'Celestial Dragons.' All isolated examples; of course the vast majority of LFI are not antisemites, nor is Mélenchon himself that I know of -- but the unwillingness to deal with the problem or even to acknowledge it is just as bad.
"Authoritarian" is my own value judgement, there are quite a few testimonies; the quasi-purge and assorted sad affair with Corbière (a former Mélenchon lieutenant) certainly supports the idea. What feels unhealthy too is that (from the outside) at least, it looks like there are no internal politics or internal democracy with LFI.

[romddude]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 025-09-12/

[zompist]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 025-09-12/

Before the verdict, an administration spokescreature said the US could use “economic and military might” against Brazil. This of course in addition to the 50% tariffs already imposed, explicitly made to support their fellow fascist, Bolsonaro.

It's also making military threats against Venezuela.

Torco must be happy, though, since he supported a fascist takeover of the US because worldwide fascism somehow meant no coup in Chile. And there's been no coup in Chile yet.

[rotting bones]

To be frank, I'm really angry at LFI. We're supposed to be fighting off far-right racist authoritarian, and what do we get? An antisemitic, authoritarian and violent "left-wing" party.

(Putting "left-wing" into scare quotes, because they're doing their best to prove the horseshoe theory right anyway.)

I don't know details about Melenchon, but I agree that leftist parties should do more to eject Islamist and Arab nationalist infiltrators. As for what you say about the lack of internal democracy, the same thing applies to the Democratic Party in the US.

The difference between the left and the right is that leftist movements promote emancipation and egalitarianism, even if the implementation falls short of the ideal, whereas the right explicitly works for oppression and domination.

This is why I don't think it's a good idea to give credence the horseshoe theory in today's world, where the left has no power. China is a nationalist country. Every party participating in the new Bangladesh election is right-wing. There is no Soviet Union to bankroll leftists.

Instead of equating the far left and the far right, it's a better idea to call on leftist parties to stand true to their principles.

[Raphael]

I don't think that horseshoe theory really equates the far left and the far right. If it did that, it would have to be called ring theory. The idea is that the far left and the far right are in some ways closer to each other than some might think at first, not that they're the same.