British Politics Guide

[alice]

Note that Scottish schools generally start their summer holidays at the end of June or the start of July. As John Swinney pointed out, Rishi didn't know, or care.

[Richard W]

Note that Scottish schools generally start their summer holidays at the end of June or the start of July. As John Swinney pointed out, Rishi didn't know, or care.

The Conservatives are traditionally better at getting out the postal vote. Voter suppression is Tory policy nowadays.

[bradrn]

This man seems quite mad… I just saw the following headline:

Sunak vows to bring back national service for school leavers

Is he trying to sabotage the miniscule chance he has of re-election? I struggle to explain his actions in any other coherent way…

[Travis B.]

This man seems quite mad… I just saw the following headline:

Sunak vows to bring back national service for school leavers

Is he trying to sabotage the miniscule chance he has of re-election? I struggle to explain his actions in any other coherent way…

Is Sunak insane?

[bradrn]

This man seems quite mad… I just saw the following headline:

Sunak vows to bring back national service for school leavers

Is he trying to sabotage the miniscule chance he has of re-election? I struggle to explain his actions in any other coherent way…

Is Sunak insane?

It does seem quite likely, doesn’t it? At some point you do have to admit it as a serious possibility.

(Not that I’m complaining, mind you. I like Starmer quite a lot, from what I’ve seen of him.)

[Travis B.]

This man seems quite mad… I just saw the following headline:

Sunak vows to bring back national service for school leavers

Is he trying to sabotage the miniscule chance he has of re-election? I struggle to explain his actions in any other coherent way…

Is Sunak insane?

It does seem quite likely, doesn’t it? At some point you do have to admit it as a serious possibility.

(Not that I’m complaining, mind you. I like Starmer quite a lot, from what I’ve seen of him.)

The explanation I have read is that he has given up on winning the general election and instead is focused on winning the Tory leadership election by pandering to the far right.

[bradrn]

Is Sunak insane?

It does seem quite likely, doesn’t it? At some point you do have to admit it as a serious possibility.

(Not that I’m complaining, mind you. I like Starmer quite a lot, from what I’ve seen of him.)

The explanation I have read is that he has given up on winning the general election and instead is focused on winning the Tory leadership election by pandering to the far right.

Hmm… OK, yeah, that sounds quite plausible too. (Very sadly.)

[Raphael]

The explanation I have read is that he has given up on winning the general election and instead is focused on winning the Tory leadership election by pandering to the far right.

Hmm… OK, yeah, that sounds quite plausible too. (Very sadly.)

I don't see even that working, though. Isn't the Tories' far-right wing still angry at Sunak for being the guy the somewhat-less-far-right wing forced on them when Johnson and Truss hadn't worked out? And that's before we even get to the fact that his name is "Rishi Sunak".

[Richard W]

The explanation I have read is that he has given up on winning the general election and instead is focused on winning the Tory leadership election by pandering to the far right.

Hmm… OK, yeah, that sounds quite plausible too. (Very sadly.)

I don't see even that working, though. Isn't the Tories' far-right wing still angry at Sunak for being the guy the somewhat-less-far-right wing forced on them when Johnson and Truss hadn't worked out? And that's before we even get to the fact that his name is "Rishi Sunak".

The present Conservative leadership seems fairly tolerant of such matters. Despite a recent run of prime ministers of Scottish origin - Blair, Brown, Cameron - Kemi Badenoch doesn't seem to have been hurt by the in your face Scottishness of her husband's name (Hamish Badenoch). Sunak seemed to produce a reasonable reading of the lesson from the King James Bible at the coronation. I doubt Priti Patel would improve her chances by using her married name (Sawyer).

[Raphael]

Wow. I didn't see that coming - Tory backbenchers were trying to un-call the election:

https://davidallengreen.com/2024/05/tho ... to-an-end/

[jcb]

(wrong thread, please ignore)

[Raphael]

Wrong thread, I think.

[sangi39]

I've been keeping an eye on the Electoral Calculus website for the constituencies of Richmond (North Yorkshire)* (where I lived up until 6 months ago, Sunak's seat), Thirsk & Malton (the constituency that that address now falls into, thanks to boundaries being changed), and Darlington (the constituency I currently live in), and just noticed this morning that, for Richmond, they have Sunak being 0.1% of the total number of estimated votes *behind* the Labour candidate

I imagine that's not the likely outcome, but that's insanely close, especially considering a) Sunak is the current Prime Minister, b) Richmond has returned Conservative MPs for over a century with absolute majorities all but twice (relative majorities in 1989 and 1997, with 5% and %20 leads respectively), and c) I'm pretty sure the last two elections they had Sunak winning the seat as pretty much a certainty (which makes sense, it's a *really* safe seat for the party). To go from "basically guaranteed to retain the seat" to a potential coin flip with the election one week away feels pretty big to me

Also only just found out that an encumbent prime minister has never lost their seat during a general election, so if that coin flip does go the wrong way for Sunak, that would be something new (Tories lose safe-as-hell seat, *and* PM loses seat)

* I think it's "Richmond & Northallerton" now

[Raphael]

I've been keeping an eye on the Electoral Calculus website for the constituencies of Richmond (North Yorkshire)* (where I lived up until 6 months ago, Sunak's seat), Thirsk & Malton (the constituency that that address now falls into, thanks to boundaries being changed), and Darlington (the constituency I currently live in), and just noticed this morning that, for Richmond, they have Sunak being 0.1% of the total number of estimated votes *behind* the Labour candidate

I imagine that's not the likely outcome, but that's insanely close,

I guess a lot of Tory voters aren't really happy with Sunak, and don't seriously hope for a Tory victory anyway, so some in his constituency might tactically stay home or even vote Labour if they hear about those polls.

[sangi39]

I've been keeping an eye on the Electoral Calculus website for the constituencies of Richmond (North Yorkshire)* (where I lived up until 6 months ago, Sunak's seat), Thirsk & Malton (the constituency that that address now falls into, thanks to boundaries being changed), and Darlington (the constituency I currently live in), and just noticed this morning that, for Richmond, they have Sunak being 0.1% of the total number of estimated votes *behind* the Labour candidate

I imagine that's not the likely outcome, but that's insanely close,

I guess a lot of Tory voters aren't really happy with Sunak, and don't seriously hope for a Tory victory anyway, so some in his constituency might tactically stay home or even vote Labour if they hear about those polls.

I think there's some vote splitting with Reform, and possibly the Lib Dems as well. The estimated vote share in Richmond for both seems to have gone up recently, but Labour's has stayed roughly the same. "Can't vote Labour" but "can't continue to vote Tory this time round" as well might be having an impact, but I suspect you're right as well, that some people who, like, weakly support the Tories, but can't bring themselves to vote for anything else, might just stay home next Thursday

[Richard W]

Having seem the depressed political posts posted lately, I suppose I should post my woes. I have a thee-way choice:

1) Vote for the party who changed my daughters citizenship from permanent to conditional and made my wife's getting citizenship too hard;

2) Vote for the 50% honest party that wants to restrict our human rights and civil liberties;

3) Vote for the party that is highly unlikely to win the seat.

[Ares Land]

2) Vote for the 50% honest party that wants to restrict our human rights and civil liberties;

Is this Labour? And how so?

Watching Labour from a distance, I'm glad they moved away from Jeremy Corbyn but it's a bit disappointing they had to go for 'Tony Blair, only more so.'